Polling stations are starting to close in Canada’s 42nd general election and the results could determine very different outcomes for the three main party leaders, according to an exclusive Ipsos survey.
The survey conducted on behalf of Global News asked just over 9,000 respondents on Monday what Conservative leader Stephen Harper, NDP leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau should do if their party fails to get elected.
READ MORE: Almost half of Canadians made up their minds before campaign began, Ipsos survey finds
Should they resign or stay on?
If Harper fails to win the most seats, 71 per cent of respondents say he should resign, while just 29 per cent say he should remain as leader. Those numbers drop among Conservative respondents: 64 per cent say he should stay on, while 36 per cent say he should resign.
“This election has been about change. Our polling has consistently shown that two-thirds of Canadians want change. If the Conservatives don’t win the most seats it’s likely that the prime minister will resign,” said Sean Simpson, vice president with Ipsos.
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“Now if you look just at Conservative voters, one third want him gone, but two thirds want him to stay. So he still has his loyal followers. If we see a thumping tonight for the Conservatives he’s probably not interested in going back to the leader of the opposition.”
The numbers for Trudeau appear to show he’s relatively safe regardless of the election’s outcome with 72 per cent of people saying he should stay on as leader and 28 per cent saying he should resign if he fails to win the most seats. The numbers jump up to 95 per cent of Liberal respondents who think he should remain as head of the party.
The numbers are divided for NDP leader Tom Mulcair with 61 per cent saying he should remain as leader if he fails to form a government and 39 per cent saying he should resign. Among NDP supporters, his numbers jump up to 89 per cent who think he should remain as leader while just 14 per cent think he should resign.
Live Canada election results 2015: Real-time results in the federal election
Ian Capstick, managing partner at Mediastyle, told Global News that any of the party leaders could lose their job tonight.
“Any one of the leaders tonight could lose their jobs,” said
“Any one of the political leaders not achieving what the expectations of their members are … could most certainly find themselves in some hot water with their caucus.”
*With a file from Anna Mehler Paperny
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